These are some articles from the now defunct Winning Moves Newsletter.
Although they're a couple years old many people still comment on how
helfpul they are.
PART I
When the legendary investor Warren Buffet talks about investing in stocks he discusses the concept of Margin of Safety. What that basically means is he’s looking for stocks where the risk of losing money is so small and the opportunity to make money so great that it virtually guarantees he’ll make money in the long run if he invests in those types of stocks. This is also known as value investing. You limit your risk and try to maximize your profits. It’s not easy, otherwise there’d be investing millionaires everywhere, but it’s a valid concept that can be applied to betting on horses.
In horse racing the concept of Margin of Safety would be as follows; limit risk by not betting too much of your bankroll on a particular race, pick a horse that stands a good chance of winning and only bet when the odds are high enough that you virtually guarantee yourself a profit over time if you only bet on those types of horses.
The simplest and easiest way to apply Margin of Safety to horse racing is to look for contenders that you have identified in your handicapping, identify the contenders that are going off at 50%-75% or higher than the program or Morning Line odds and bet on those horses to win. There are many nuances to even such a simple concept as this. That said, using the concept of Margin of Safety is still the best place to start if you’re primary goal is to make money in the long run.
Part II
I always like it when I find someone who has been successful that provides support for what I have been doing and helping others to do. Len Friedman, the famous bettor behind The Sheets (see www.thesheets.com if you’re not familiar with them) had the following to say on a bulletin board post (I didn’t write down the date) on The Sheets website. “For the short term I think the general approach to most races is to separate out the horses that recently have run numbers as good as any others in the race plus those who have back numbers that are competitive and who have a recent number within 4 points of being competitive and who seem to be on the improve. Treat these as contenders. If one of these horses is going off at twice the odds as the number of contenders and has not just run a race that if figures to react to, that horse is probably an overlay. I say probably because any arbitrary rule like this is going to contain an occasional horse who fits in but for some strange quirk of its pattern or some extraneous reason (like it was just claimed away from
*When he talks about points or numbers he’s referring to their speed ratings. When he mentions a horse being claimed away from
Most everything Len Friedman covers is already incorporated into the Winning Moves software except for the final odds. The Pattern Catalyst takes into account horses that are improving, the Adjusted Speed Ratings help eliminate betting on a horse that may react negatively to its last race and the Adjusted Speed, Best Speed and Stamina Categories account for horses that have run a race that is competitive in today’s race. In using Winning Moves in the style that Friedman suggests the first thing to do is to mark contenders in the different speed categories that are within 1-2 points of the 2 top rated horses in each category. Then look for reasons to eliminate these horses due to: being claimed by a bad trainer, has never run well on today’s surface or at today’s distance, (unless the breeding suggests the horse will improve when switching to today’s distance or surface), has a very bad post position, will be severely compromised by today’s pace or the horse is taking a negative drop in class (has been winning at higher levels and is dropping in class).
The final step is to then bet those remaining horses that are going off at odds twice as high as the number of contenders in the race (I believe you can decrease this to 50% higher than the number of contenders). I think Friedman’s response further demonstrates the concept of Margin of Safety and will give handicappers a slightly alternative approach to determine what the appropriate odds are to bet a horse. Remember the key to winning is not picking winners but in picking good bets.
Part II
There’s not a single program or method being sold today that will allow you to make a profit by betting on the top selection(s) in every race, Winning Moves included. Just blindly betting on the top selection or top two selections each race may give you some good days but will quickly lead you to financial ruin if you try to do it every day. In order to become profitable you have to go a step further. You must be patient, disciplined and like to learn.
Before determining if a horse is a value bet it’s a good idea to identify those horses that should be moved up or down on your contender list. The program does some of this for you by identifying catalysts and adjusting the speed figures. However, to take it to a more professional level you can go a step further. Ernie Dahlman, who has played professionally the past 40+ years and won many millions of dollars betting the horses had the following to say in his interview with Barry Meadow that was published in the “Meadow’s Racing Monthly” November 2001: “If I’m looking at a horse whose numbers are four lengths behind those of another horse, I’ve got to figure out a way to make up those 4 lengths. Maybe it’s a trainer change or a jockey change, maybe the horse got into a speed duel last time but plots for a much easier trip today, maybe he’s getting a shoe change, maybe he’s changing surface or distance.”
If you want to improve your results try to use the approach used by Ernie Dahlman. Start by looking at the fastest horse in the race; does it have any flaws that may cause it to run a poor race today? Then look at the figures of the other contenders. Are there one or two horses that are much faster than all the other horses or are there 4-5 that are close in ratings? If the ratings are close does the horse have any catalysts that indicate it will run a better race today? After you have gone through this process go back to finding the horses that are giving you the best value for your bet and you’re well on you way to becoming a winning horseplayer. It’s not easy do but just going through the process will help your handicapping tremendously in the long-term
WINNING MOVES
Beating the Professionals
In this article I want to point out some reasons why it’s hard for the part-time handicapper to achieve the same betting results as professional handicappers and savvy betting trainers.
We can all learn discipline, how to properly evaluate a race, what type of horses to bet and what odds to require the horse to have to achieve a long-term profit. In fact we can learn those aspects as good if not better than the trainers and other handicappers. But there is one edge professionals have that most of us will never be able to have. That edge is being at the track and watching the horses and races everyday. The observation of the physical condition of the horse, equipment changes, trip notes, and track/surface conditions offer the professionals and savvy trainers a big edge over the recreational player. Below are the areas that offer them the biggest opportunities:
Physical Condition
The first advantage the professionals have is the current physical condition of a horse. Does the horse look ready for the race today; is its coat in peak condition, how is it walking etc.. The main edge that professionals have in this area is knowing how the horse looks and is acting today compared to how it looked and acted in the past. Has a young horse gotten bigger and stronger, is the horses coat improving, is the horse walking differently than it has before, is the horses pre-race behavior consistent to prior races, is the horse wearing different equipment than it did in the past or has the horse been ill and is recovering and eating better? This takes a lot of time and work. A good claiming trainers job depends on it.
It’s hard to just read a book and accurately predict how a horse will perform based on how they look today. I’ve personally lost more money than I’ve made when I’ve incorporated physically handicapping a horse because I didn’t have the knowledge of how to do it properly. Without knowing how the horse looked or acted when it ran well compared to how the horse looks when it doesn’t you don’t have much to base your decision on. Some horses warm up lazy and perform sharp while others always look great warming up but rarely run a top race unless everything goes their way. Horses are individuals just like human athletes. When an athlete is on the field I have no idea who is a good or bad athlete just by looking at them. They come in all shapes and sizes. I have to know how they looked and performed before to make a decision on how they look today. I can make a good guess based on their physical appearance or something obvious like a noticeable limp or big gut hanging out, but other than that I’m just guessing.
Trip Handicapping
This is another area that gives some professionals a big edge. When a horse checks sharply, stumbles badly at the gate or is pulled up in the stretch everyone knows about it. It’s in the charts and is quite obvious to anyone who watched the race. The professionals achieve their edge by catching the not so obvious things.
This first area the professional can gain an edge with trip handicapping is watching how a horse breaks in the race. If the horse is squeezed back, gets a slow start or has to check right after the start the horse has already spotted the field a couple of lengths and has little chance of winning. If that same horse breaks clean today it could improve a couple lengths. If the horse usually breaks slowly or gets into trouble it’s not worth noting if the same thing happens today. However if the horse usually breaks well but didn’t or the horse ran into trouble early the professionals make a note of it.
Because the speed ratings and finish of these horses look worse than they should they tend to go off at higher odds than they normally would had they had a clean break or not gotten into trouble last race. I’ve had many horses I’ve bet on get a bad break, especially in turf races. I always note them so I can bet them in their comeback race if they qualify.
Other things a professional will for look include; if the horse ran against an abnormally slow or fast pace, was the horse being held back during the beginning of the race, did the jockey rush the horse up and make an early move prematurely exhausting the horses energy, did the horse run on the slowest part of the track, was the horse forced to run wide during the turns or did the horse get shuffled back running on the turn. All these are reasons the horse may not have run it’s best race and will be able to run a better race next time.
The professionals also note the opposite of the troubled horse, the horse that gets a perfect trip without much pressure from other horses on the best part of the track. These types of horses are good to bet against at low odds if they don’t figure to be much the best horse in the race. By watching the races the professionals gain an understanding of how the horse earned it’s speed rating and if it will be able to repeat that rating and under what conditions.
Another area they look at is to see if the workout times of the horses are wrong or if the official race time is inaccurate due to timing malfunctions (which do occur). In takes a lot of time and study to do this properly. The professional has a decided advantage in some races with this information.
Don’t let the advantages the professionals have discourage you. It’s a very time consuming and sometimes lonely occupation. Although most people think of the life of a professional handicapper as a glamorous lifestyle the reality is a different. They spend many hours each day handicapping and taking notes. They have to be at the races 5 days a week including every weekend and holiday the tracks open and put in 10-12 hour days. Most of the time is spent alone or with a small group of acquaintances because of the intense concentration it takes to succeed. Returns are in the single digits percentage wise for any professional whose results have been published (although I’m sure there’s someone making more and results vary from year to year.) You have to have a very large bankroll and bet a lot of money to earn a decent living. In order to make $50,000 a year with a generous 10% return you ‘d have to put $500,000 through the windows a year. There aren’t any benefits, you have to deal with periods of weeks or maybe months without making any money and if you happen to lose your edge it’s very difficult to get a good job when you tell an employer your past experience consists of betting on horses.
Hopefully you don’t need to rely on profits from betting horses for rent and food money. Most of us do this for fun and/or to make a little extra money. Also remember part-time players make some of the biggest betting scores everyday at the track.
Part-time players won the largest payout ever on the Breeders Cup pick 6. There are many part-time handicappers that show a nice positive return on their money and who consistently win without knowledge of track bias, the physical appearance of the horse or trip notes. But it’s good knowledge to have and will improve your bottom line.
WINNING MOVES
Learning to Pick Winners Will Cause You to Lose Money.
The above sounds like a piece of B.S. to most of you but it’s true. The handicapping approach most people use to pick winners is almost the opposite of what you need to do to win money at the races. Let me explain.
Handicapping to find the winner of a race teaches you to handicap and find the most probable winner (obvious I know but it leads to a point). On average the favorite wins 30-32% of the time and the top 2 favorites win 50% of the time. As you can see, finding the most probable winner of a race teaches you to handicap for low priced horses (favorites). Looking for low priced winners teaches people to handicap in similar ways which further depresses the odds of the favorites in today’s race. If you get good at picking winners you’ll have a high win percentage and a lot of confidence in your handicapping ability but you’ll still lose money. There are very few people (if anyone) that can show a profit just betting low priced horses long-term.
Handicapping to make money is a little different than handicapping to find the most likely winner of the race. The first step is to list the horses that could possibly win the race given the right scenario. They will vary depending on the handicapping approach you choose. Then group them into the most likely winners, the horses that may surprise given the right circumstances and those with very little chance of winning. Once that’s done look to see which horse the public has made the favorite in the race. If the favorite has by far the best chance to win you are better off passing the race. If you don’t you will probably never succeed as a horseplayer. If the horse for some reason is not over-bet then bet it. You can only learn this by experience.
The reason you have to pass races with a strong favorite that is not an overlay is that these favorites create false overlays for the other horses. The favorites in these races lose less than the track take. Because of this the odds on all the other horses are actually inflated creating the illusion of overlays. People are lulled into the fact that their contenders are going off at odds higher than their actual probability of winning. They bet these horses thinking they have an edge over the other players when in reality they are betting into a situation where they are at a disadvantage. Unless you are extremely confident that a strong favorite stands a good chance of losing or is bet way below what it should be (which may eventually give you an edge in the betting pools) lay off the race. Keep records of how you do in these situations to prove it to yourself.
If the favorite is not extremely strong you have found a good race to bet in provided one of your contenders offers value. Because people are taught to find the most likely winner they will zero in on a horse and make it a favorite at low odds even if the horse only has a very small edge over the field or has a couple flaws in its form. For example: if the best 3 horses in the race are extremely close to or equal in their ability their fair odds might be 3-1, 3-1, 7-2 and 4-1. But people are taught to find the winner of the race so they will find enough of a difference to make one of the horses the favorite. The actual odds may end up being 2-1, 5-2, 4-1 and 8-1. This happens because that’s what people are taught to do; find the most likely winner no matter how big or little of an edge it has. Some reasons that the public will make a horse the false favorite include a well known trainer or jockey, the horse was picked to win by a well known handicapper, a hot rumor, a very fast race last out without a supporting fast race, a couple close finishes recently or a drop in class with good form. It’s in the races where the favorite has a couple of flaws or doesn’t have a big edge over the rest of the contenders that you will find overlays that give you a chance of winning money long-term.
When you find these situations the horse(s) you should bet are the ones going off at the highest odds relative to their chance of winning. You should almost always stick to your main contenders (top3-4) in deciding which horses to bet.
If you’re playing the exacta in a race with a false favorite a professional player suggested the following (paraphrasing) “Many players will wheel their horse in the exacta keying other horses to it. Most everyone will have the favorite on their ticket. If the favorite comes in first or second with your horse you will have most likely lost your betting advantage in the race. Instead of betting into a position of strength (an overlay) you end up betting into a position weakness (into an over bet favorite). If the favorite is vulnerable and you have bet on another horse in the race I suggest doing the following for exacta betting. While I still put the favorite on the ticket if it has a decent chance of finishing first or second I put less money on that combination than others. I may bet in multiples of $2 for the favorite $4 for the other combinations and $2 on any long-shot combinations (long-shot combinations are also usually over-bet relative to their chances of winning because people want to make a killing in the race). This allows me to cash and make money on my horse if the favorite finishes first or second and to make really good money if one of the other combinations pays. The reason some others and I will use the favorite in this situation is because it reduces the volatility in my bankroll (the highs and lows) and is thus good for psychological reasons.”
Conclusion: Beware of playing longshots in a race with a strong favorite. Bet the strong favorite if it’s an overlay. If the favorite has a flaw or the contenders are very closely rated take a chance and bet on a contender going off at long odds. When you bet the exacta bet less on combinations with the favorite and the longest priced horses.
________________________________________________________________________
When I first developed Winning Moves I was surprised at some results and somewhat disappointed in others. The results really drove home the fact that you have to be disciplined and patient in your betting to show a long-term profit. It also demonstrated vividly why it’s important not to bet too much of your bankroll on any one race.
Any method or program will go though winning and losing streaks. For whatever reason (how the tracks playing, time of year, etc) programs and methods tend to win and lose in streaks. Therefore it’s important not to bet too much on any one race. If you bet too much during a losing streak you won’t have enough money left to recover and take advantage of a winning streak. The following test will help demonstrate this on a smaller scale.
I had previously only used speed ratings for selecting contenders because I never saw much improvement using pace ratings and it was easier. However I’m always looking at ways to improve the program. One of my searches led me to an old article by Ray Talbout about pace. Although a dated article he talked about the importance of the pace the horse ran against versus the pace ratings the horse actually achieved. So I tweaked some of the speed ratings based on pace.
Knowing the flaws of back-fitting data samples the real test would be to see how it performed on a new sub-set of races. I used the results from most of the
Even though the results were profitable the following list will demonstrate why you have to have patience and good money management.
Routes 13-48 27% Sprints 24-91 26%
5.20 13.20 0 4.20 7.80 0 0 4.60 24.80
0 0 0 0 4.60 0 0 6.60
0 0 5.40 0 0 0 8.40 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 3.20 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
5.20 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
0 0 17.60 0 5.40 0 0 0
0 0 21.40 0 0 3.40 0 3.00
0 0 0 10.40 0 0 0 10.20
0 7.40 0 0 0 0 0 24.20
0 5.00 0 5.20 0 14.60 12.20 0
0 0 7.40 5.00 5.00 0 6.60
0 5.00 0 0 0 5.40 0
0 0 0 0 0 0 0
4.20 20.60 8.60 8.00 0 0 0
0 0 0 0 0 26.20 0
14.20 0 0 0 0 0 0
Even though the win percent is right about average and this sequence shows a profit for both routes (there’s less races because I didn’t include turf routes as explained above) and sprints you’d be surprised how many people would give up on this program if they had started using it during a bad streak or period of low priced winners. The longest losing streak in the above sequence is 10 and there was one streak of 1 win in 16 bets. If you use the program long enough you’ll see losing streaks of 20 or more and some fairly long streaks where it’s not profitable to bet the top pick in every race. Then again there’ll be some hot periods with $20 winners.
If you started with a good streak and a few long shots you would think the program was like printing money. If you started during a cold streak you’d think the program was junk. In truth, it’s neither. In the long run you can profit and make money using the speed ratings. However it will take some time and effort on your part. Just using the ratings gives you a great chance to make very good money on any given weekend. For a true test however you need to use it for at least 2-3 months to know how and when to take advantage of the top rated horses and those with multiple catalysts.
Q & A
Q: What kind of results can I expect from using Winning Moves?
A: As I’ve mentioned previously it all depends on the person using Winning Moves. People tend to win from programs and methods that fit their personality. Different people make money from different methods.
I could never make money just using speed or pace by itself, others can. I hardly have a clue as to the physical condition of a horse before the race; some professionals use it as a potent part of their betting. I tend to be pretty selective and can only make money betting an average of 1-2 races per racing card. Some people are able to bet 20 races a day handicapping 4-5 tracks a day and still make a profit. I know this method works but not everyone will stick with it or find that it works best for them. Some will it as their only source of betting while others will combine it with another method they’re using.
I read a quote recently that sums it up best and applies to Winning Moves or any other program you start to use. The following quote was posted on the Ed Bain bulletin board, dated 12/20/2003 by Jon W, “The “slumps” and “hot streaks” are generally just within personal experience-an individual makes a short term run of good or bad decisions or his/her personal favorites have a particularly slow or hot run of winners. Most who try using Ed’s stats as a primary factor in their betting do so for only a short time-either they get a couple of great hits right away and then suffer when the averages even out, or they start during a short down cycle. Either way, they get discouraged. Over time I’ve discovered that nothing will change the mindset of the typical user-most are looking for spectacular results immediately and when the immediate success doesn’t happen or the early success turns to a subsequent lull, they become convinced that the “stats don’t work”. So, when someone is asking “how is it going these days”, I don’t really have much to say anymore. Its just going the same these days as it always has. The only difference in success is within the player and what he/she has put of themselves in the process. I find an endless supply of new discoveries along the way and can’t imagine another ay of playing.”
We can show you a way of playing that’s profitable and provide you with a program and books that will help you along the way, but in the end it’s up to each individual to determine how well he or she will do.